The Collapse of the Economics PhD Job Market: What is an Economics PhD Worth in 2025? For decades, an Economics PhD was a reliable path to tenure or prestigious roles at central banks, think tanks, or tech firms. Today, the economics job market is in sharp decline. Key Data and Trends The American Economic Association's centralized job postings (JOE) reveal a consistent drop in job openings: 2022: 1,477 openings 2023: fewer 2024: fewer still 2025 projection: ~1,000 openings, a 32% decrease over three years Permanent academic jobs (tenure-track/tenured) have dropped from 631 (2022) to about 400 (2025), a 35% decline in three years. Econ Job Market (EJM) data show interview invitations fell from 3,835 to 2,502 (34.8% decrease). Meanwhile, PhD supply is rising: 1,385 Americans earned economics PhDs in 2024—up from previous years. Total 2024-25 market applicants: 5,341, the largest ever recorded. Only about 7% of American PhD graduates secure tenure-track positions; even the most generous estimates do not exceed 20-25%. Top-tier universities (Harvard, MIT, Stanford, Chicago, Princeton, Yale, Berkeley, Penn) capture a disproportionately large share of the scarce tenure-track jobs. Demand is Collapsing Beyond Academia Too Government jobs (e.g., Federal Reserve, Treasury, BLS, CBO) have declined due to hiring freezes, budget cuts, and political shifts. International organizations (IMF, World Bank, OECD) now have fewer openings with similar hiring freezes. Tech industry demand for economists, once booming, is shrinking due to layoffs, automation, and competition from data scientists and AI. Banking and finance remain relatively stable but employ economists mainly as niche hires rather than core staff, preferring MBAs, statisticians, or computer scientists. Structural Reasons Behind Declining Demand for Economics Professors Declining Undergraduate Enrollment University data show fewer economics majors, causing fewer economics degrees awarded. National statistics confirm a recent drop after years of growth. The Demographic Cliff The number of 18-year-olds in the U.S. declines in the 2020s-2030s. Departments compete more fiercely for fewer students and funding. The Rise of Artificial Intelligence AI systems (e.g., ChatGPT) are progressively taking over tasks traditionally done by graduate students and junior faculty, such as data cleaning, econometric modeling, and report writing. Loss of Public Trust Due to Inflation Messaging Economists’ public confidence took a hit due to inaccurate inflation forecasts and alignment with political narratives, eroding trust in the profession. Is an Economics PhD Still Worth It? The article argues no, describing it as a gamble with terrible odds. Few winners come almost exclusively from the highest-ranked programs. For most, the PhD is a trap involving years of intense effort and ending with underemployment. Top economics PhD programs admit large cohorts partly due to faculty incentives tied to student mentorship, perpetuating oversupply. Similar assessments have recently appeared in major publications like the New York Times. Outlook and Possible Future Recovery is unlikely without radical action such as coordinated cuts in admissions across all programs. Candidates should be advised to prepare for non-academic careers or extended post-doc positions. An optimistic note suggests intellectual life may decentralize, with platforms like Substack becoming new venues for economists to contribute and influence. Commentary and Reader Responses PhD economists recognize the grim market but also see potential in alternative career paths. AI's growing proficiency is noted with concern about future job displacement. Calls for a shift in graduate education focus appear, suggesting many programs should switch to