Magical Systems Thinking By Ed Bradon | 12th September 2025 | 17 min read --- Introduction Modern complex systems like the water supply, internet, and supply chains began as simple working systems evolved over decades. Despite this, there is a prevalent belief that complex systems can be deliberately designed and controlled through analysis and "systems thinking." However, empirical evidence suggests such efforts often fail because systems inherently resist control and change. --- The Origins and Limits of Systems Thinking The first electric grid started in 1881 as a simple system and was gradually improved. Governments often struggle with complex system reforms: HealthCare.gov (US) faced technical failures on launch. Australia's disability reforms escalated costs beyond projections. The UK's Contracts for Difference strained the grid, slowing renewable energy rollout. These issues show that even with advanced analytical tools, complex systems "kick back" and resist control. --- Jay Wright Forrester’s World Model In 1970, Forrester created a sophisticated mathematical model to predict global economic and social dynamics, including resource use, population, and pollution. The model predicted an irreversible decline in living standards starting around 2025. Reality contradicted these predictions: Global GDP has quintupled since 1970. Forest cover in industrial regions has increased. Death rates from pollution have nearly halved. Why did the model fail? Forrester’s systems analysis works best on static or well-contained systems but breaks down at complex, human-influenced scales where unpredictability and political factors dominate. --- Le Chatelier’s Principle and Systems Resistance Henri Louis Le Chatelier demonstrated in the 19th century that chemical systems resist imposed changes to maintain equilibrium. John Gall applied a similar idea to social systems, arguing they oppose their own functioning. Gall’s book Systemantics (The Systems Bible) outlines key aphorisms such as: NEW SYSTEMS CREATE NEW PROBLEMS. SYSTEMS TEND TO GROW, AND AS THEY GROW THEY ENCROACH. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT DO WHAT IT SAYS IT IS DOING. THE SYSTEM ALWAYS KICKS BACK. These principles foster healthy skepticism about managing complex systems. --- Gall’s Law: The Importance of Starting Simple "A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that worked. A complex system designed from scratch never works and cannot be patched up to make it work. You have to start over with a working simple system." Historical tech progress supports this: From simple water wheels to modern electric grids. From early primitive transistors to billions of integrated circuits today. Example: Factorio, a computer game where players build a vast factory starting with simple working systems, learning and iterating as they progress. --- Building Systems That Work: Practical Examples Complex government systems cannot be shut down for overhaul. Yet, starting small working systems alongside the old ones is effective. Examples: US ICBM Program (1950s): General Schriever bypassed bureaucratic complexity by creating a focused, vertically accountable organization that built advanced missiles quickly. Operation Warp Speed (COVID-19 vaccines): Accelerated vaccine development by circumventing usual bureaucratic bottlenecks and streamlining processes. Notre-Dame Reconstruction (France, 2019): Set up a special legal framework and leadership outside normal bureaucracy to fast-track restoration. Estonia’s e-ID and Digital Government: Began with simple digital ID and gradually expanded, now saving 2% of GDP annually. These successes came not from unraveling complex bureaucracy but by establishing simple, parallel systems that could evolve and scale. --- Conclusion & Future Outlook -