Job Mismatch and Early Career Success Authors: Julie Berry Cullen Gordon B. Dahl Richard De Thorpe Working Paper: 34215 DOI: 10.3386/w34215 Issue Date: September 2025 --- Abstract This study investigates how being overqualified or underqualified early in a worker's career impacts skill acquisition, retention, and promotion, focusing on the US Air Force. Given difficulties in estimating these effects due to self-selection biases, the authors leverage the Air Force's quasi-random job assignment mechanism based on test scores, training slot availability, and cohort recruit quality to create variation in job-ability mismatch. --- Key Findings Overqualification: Increased attrition during training and post-assignment periods. More behavioral problems and worse performance evaluations. Lower scores on general military knowledge tests. Despite lower motivation, better job-specific performance and higher promotion likelihood. Tend to be assigned jobs with lower outside earnings potential. Underqualification: Opposite pattern: motivated to exert more effort but struggle relative to peers. Tend to be assigned jobs with higher outside earnings potential. --- Interpretation Overqualified individuals demonstrate greater job-specific skill gains and promotions but show signs of lower motivation and poorer general knowledge retention. Underqualified individuals show higher motivation but face competitive challenges. Job value outside the military correlates inversely with qualification mismatch direction. --- Acknowledgements Thanks to Letian Yin for research assistance. Feedback from seminars at several academic institutions. No project funding or financial conflicts reported. Views expressed are those of the authors and do not reflect NBER. --- Related Topics and Programs Topics: Labor Economics Labor Supply and Demand Programs: Economics of Education Labor Studies Public Economics --- About the NBER The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publishes working papers and disseminates economic research through free periodicals, conferences, video lectures, and interviews. Contact: 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138 Phone: 617-868-3900 Email: info@nber.org --- Social Media & Sharing Links Twitter (X) LinkedIn Facebook Bluesky Threads Email sharing option --- This paper provides empirical evidence on the nuanced effects of job mismatch early in careers, shedding light on motivation, performance, and the economic value of jobs relative to workers' qualifications.